Will the AI Capex Bubble Burst? The "Rule of 25" Drawn From 250 Years of Market History
When will the AI capex bubble burst? Barron's uses 250 years of market …
[!TIP] Data Updated (fees, TSMC weight and 10-year annualized figures corrected 2026-10-19; 2025 returns are 2026-01-31 data, re-checked 2026-10-19 via yfinance total return): The primary comparison in this article has been updated to 2025 calendar-year returns: 0050 approximately +36.85%, VOO approximately +17.82%, QQQ approximately +20.77%. Different platforms may show slight variations due to dividend treatment and NAV vs. market price differences — please verify with your broker before placing orders.
Info
💡 Want to dive deeper into VOO investing? Visit the VOO Investing Knowledge Hub for complete resources from beginner to advanced!
In 2025, global equity markets continued their growth trend with AI and mega-cap tech stocks still driving the market. However, Taiwan stocks — led by their heavyweight components — still clearly outpaced major U.S. indices. Here are the annual returns for three popular ETFs:
Why did Taiwan 50 (0050) still significantly outperform both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 in 2025? This article will analyze the performance gap from the perspectives of component stock influence, valuation differences, interest rate policy, and capital flows.

While each of the three has its own advantages, the toughest choice for many Taiwanese investors is still deciding between “investing in Taiwan” and “investing in the U.S.” Let’s pull out 0050 and VOO for a one-on-one deep comparison.
| Comparison Item | Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050) | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) | Lazy Da’s Take |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market | Taiwan | United States | Don’t put all your eggs in one basket — but which basket is main? |
| Key Holdings | TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor, ~56.66% weight) | Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and 500 more | 0050 is highly concentrated — TSMC makes or breaks it |
| Risk Diversification | Risk highly concentrated in electronics sector | Spans 11 sectors, extremely diversified | VOO is the classic “lie-flat” investment choice |
| Expense Ratio | ~0.095% (management ~0.0682% + custody ~0.027%) | 0.03% | Long-term, VOO’s ultra-low cost remains a key advantage |
| Currency Risk | None (New Taiwan Dollar) | Yes (USD exchange rate fluctuation) | Investing in VOO requires factoring in exchange timing and costs |
| Best For | Aggressive investors bullish on Taiwan’s tech industry | Investors who prefer steady, long-term global exposure | Beginners: VT as a first ETF; between these two, VOO first, then 0050 |
0050 tracks Taiwan’s top 50 market-cap stocks, and TSMC (2330) has risen to approximately 56.66% of the weighting (as of 2026-10-16, Yuanta), so TSMC’s stock performance has a very direct impact on 0050. In 2025, Taiwan’s AI supply chain continued its strong momentum, further powering 0050’s performance.
By comparison, VOO tracks the U.S. S&P 500 Index, and QQQ tracks the NASDAQ 100 Index. While both are also benefiting from AI-related stocks, their holdings are more diversified, which relatively limits their upside.
| ETF | Key Holdings | AI Beneficiary Level | Impact on ETF Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0050 | TSMC, MediaTek, Quanta Computer, Gigabyte | High (TSMC at high weight) | Enormous impact, driving 2025’s +36.85% |
| VOO (S&P 500) | Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA | High, but more diversified | Moderate impact, ~+17.82% in 2025 |
| QQQ (NASDAQ 100) | NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, Google | High (major tech beneficiaries) | Larger impact, ~+20.77% in 2025 |
As of late January 2026, markets generally observed valuation differences between Taiwan and U.S. stocks:
This means that when markets favor “growth + low valuation” combinations, Taiwan stocks more easily attract capital inflows. U.S. stocks, with higher large-cap valuations, typically need continuously better-than-expected earnings to sustain their rally.
🔹 Lower-valuation markets are more likely to attract capital inflows, driving stock prices higher
🔹 U.S. stocks carry a higher P/E, requiring stronger earnings momentum to push prices up

The January 2026 FOMC meeting kept the Federal Funds Rate at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling that monetary policy remains cautiously restrained. This has a valuation impact on both VOO and QQQ, especially QQQ with its heavier weighting in growth stocks, which tends to be more sensitive to interest rate changes.
By comparison, Taiwan stocks are less influenced by U.S. rate policy, and foreign capital continues to flow in, further driving 0050 higher.

The AI boom is driving the tech sector, but it’s affecting Taiwan stocks and U.S. stocks in different ways:
🔹 Taiwan Stocks: Led by AI supply chain companies (TSMC, Quanta Computer, Gigabyte, Wistron)
🔹 U.S. Stocks: Led by AI application companies (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta)
In 2025, AI server, chip, and cloud capital expenditure remained elevated, continuing to lift technology leaders in both Taiwan and the U.S. The difference: 0050 concentrates its bet on Taiwan’s heavyweight stocks, while VOO and QQQ ride the same tech wave through varying degrees of diversification.
| Comparison Item | QQQ | VOO |
|---|---|---|
| Tracked Index | NASDAQ 100 | S&P 500 |
| Expense Ratio | 0.18% | 0.03% |
| Number of Holdings | 100 stocks | 500 stocks |
| Primary Sector | Technology-heavy (54%) | Diversified across sectors |
| 2025 Return | +20.77% | +17.82% |
| 10-Year Annualized Return | ~20.91% (as of 2026-09-30) | ~15.29% (as of 2026-09-30) |
| Volatility | Higher | Lower |
3 Reasons to Choose QQQ:
3 Reasons to Choose VOO:
Scenario 1: Beginner Investor → Make VT your first ETF (one fund for the whole world); if you’re choosing only among these three, start with VOO to build investing confidence
Scenario 2: Experienced Investor
→ Consider an 8:2 or 7:3 VOO:QQQ allocation
Scenario 3: Growth-Oriented Aggressive Investor → Can increase QQQ weighting to 40–50%
Why was 0050 able to significantly outperform VOO and QQQ? The key factors:
If you’re focused on the AI sector, 0050 was still the relatively stronger performer in 2025. However, our real focus is not chasing who won in a single year — it’s whether your assets are reasonably allocated so they can grow over the long term.
🔒 免費訂閱,隨時可退訂
Corrections (verified 2026-10-19): 0050 TSMC weight 56.66%, management fee ~0.0682% (tiered by size, 2026-10-16), custody fee 0.03% on the first NT$1 trillion (~0.027% blended): Yuanta official pages; QQQ expense ratio 0.18% (QQQM 0.15%): Invesco official site; VOO 0.03%: Vanguard; VOO/QQQ 10-year annualized 15.29%/20.91%: Vanguard/Invesco official performance (as of 2026-09-30). Fees and weights change often — check official sites.
QQQ / S&P 500 2025 annual returns: Invesco QQQ official performance page
https://www.invesco.com/us-rest/contentdetail?contentId=841e411c-a1eb-4541-8cb8-0fa603abea81&dnsName=us
📩 訂閱即送 · Lead Magnet
訂閱即送 「ETF 懶人投資工具包」(VT/VOO/QQQ/0050 速查表、投資前檢查清單、定期定額紀律表)。有值得講的才寄 · 隨時退訂。
延伸閱讀 · Related