The Science Behind Losing Money in Stocks: How the Nobel Prize-Winning "Prospect Theory" Makes You Buy High and Sell Low
Why do you still lose money even when you know technical analysis? Because your …
Yesterday on 4/23, US stocks staged yet another strong rebound — the Dow Jones climbed 263 points (up 0.69%), the S&P 500 rose 1.20%, and the Nasdaq surged an impressive 1.59%. When markets swing wildly, many investors can’t help but dig into the reasons behind it, hoping to catch the next move. But here’s the thing — obsessing over short-term volatility might actually cause you to miss out on long-term investment opportunities.
Every time the market swings dramatically, news outlets rush to report and analysts line up to offer their takes. But honestly, I have zero interest in knowing why US stocks surged this time — in fact, I don’t think there’s any need to know. Yes, I admit that sounds a bit lazy, maybe even irresponsible. But I’m not saying this without reason.
Short-term market movements are influenced by countless complex factors and are notoriously hard to predict. Rather than spending a ton of time researching uncertain information, it’s better to focus on what you can actually control. After all, regardless of whether you correctly guess the market’s direction, your real choices boil down to just four things:
A rally is inevitable — unless human civilization stops progressing
If I know I’m going to die someday, then I really only have two choices:
Looking at outcomes in hindsight, many people would say: “Look how amazing this person’s life was!” But that’s all in the past — because the outcome is death. Isn’t this remarkably similar to stocks? No matter how great GDP growth was, no matter how strong non-farm payroll numbers were — that’s all in the past. The outcome is simply binary: up or down.
Warren Buffett once said something truly profound: “Don’t try to predict the raindrops — focus on building your Noah’s Ark.” The message is clear: instead of guessing when the market will bottom out, put your energy into building your own investment strategy. Just like building Noah’s Ark, it requires careful planning and patient execution.
So when the stock market goes on a roller coaster, I choose to keep studying whatever knowledge or skills I’m currently learning, and to keep refining my financial plan (my personal Ark). I believe that as long as you build a solid foundation, no matter how conditions change — every dip is a buying opportunity, and every rise means you’re making money. What’s there to investigate about why the market went up or down?
For the average investor, market fluctuations may not affect you as much as you think. Instead of following the crowd, focus on your own long-term investment plan. Here are three suggestions that might inspire your investment journey:
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